Forecasting using non-linear techniques in time series analysis : an overview of techniques and main issues

The development of techniques in non linear time series analysis has emerged from its time series background and developed over the last few decades into a range of techniques which aim to fill a gap in the ability to model and forecast certain types of data sets such a chaotic determinate systems. These systems are found in many diverse areas of natural and human spheres. This study outlines the background within which these techniques developed, the fundamental elements on which they are based and details some of the predictive techniques. This study aims to provide some insight into their mechanisms and their potential.peer-reviewe

Commercial and non-target species of deep water trawled muddy habitats on the Maltese continental shelf

Prior to joining the European Union, Malta operated a 25nm Exclusive Fishing Zone that was retained as a Fisheries Conservation Zone (FCZ) following EU membership. The present study was conducted in this FCZ as part of the ongoing MEDITS trawl survey programme. Otter trawl samples were collected from muddy bottoms at depths of 100-300m. The catch from each haul was sorted into commercial and non-commercial components, and fauna were identified and counted. Samples for analyses of infauna and sediment characteristics were collected using a 0.0625m² capacity box-corer. Macrofaunal abundance data for the stations were analysed using ordination techniques (nMDS) and relationships between environmental variables and faunal assemblages were explored by superimposing individual variables on the two-dimensional nMDS plots. The analyses clearly separated the commercial species into two distinct groups of assemblages that seemed to be defined principally by depth: those from inshore and south-eastern stations (depth range 100-250m) and those from north-western stations (depth range 250-300m). The non-commercial species showed a similar pattern with assemblages from inshore stations grouping together; however, the offshore stations had a greater variability in non-target species composition, especially for infauna. For the offshore stations, geographical position seemed to be important since stations off the north-western coast of the Maltese islands grouped separately from those off south-eastern Malta.peer-reviewe

Differences in demersal community structure and biomass size spectra within and outside the Maltese Fishery Management Zone (FMZ)

We examined the protection effect of a long-established fisheries protection zone by studying the demersal communities and the biomass size spectra of specific taxonomic groups. The results and the relevant management implications of the community analysis are discussed within the context of the MEDITS trawl survey program, from which the data was derived. The demersal fishery resources on the muddy bottoms of Maltese trawling grounds were found to be stratified in four main depth ranges: 83 to 166 m (outer continental shelf), 140 to 230 m (shelf break), 270 to 440 m (shallow slope), and 466 to 701 m (deep slope). Significant differences were detected between the inside and outside zones of the outer continental shelf. Stations from this stratum inside the protected zone had twice as much biomass as those outside as well as larger individuals of some species (e.g. elasmobranchs). The depth strata identified do not coincide with those sampled in existing trawl survey programmes in the Sicilian Channel, which were set up without reference to demersal assemblage structure and its relation to depth. It is therefore clear that characterisation of the biotic assemblages is important in order to obtain a better sampling representation of each depth-stratum/assemblage type, and this should be considered in the survey design.peer-reviewe

Role of environmental variables in structuring demersal assemblages on trawled bottoms on the Maltese continental shelf

Demersal assemblages from trawl surveys made at depths of 45-800m in trawled areas within the 25NM Fisheries Management Zone round the Maltese Islands were related to environmental characteristics on the seabed. Depth, temperature, and mean grain size all affected the structure of the demersal assemblages but depth and temperature gradient were overall the most important in that order; while mean grain size seemed more important for relatively shallow bottoms (<80m) than for deep ones.peer-reviewe

Management strategies for gastrointestinal, erectile, bladder, and sudomotor dysfunction in patients with diabetes

There are substantial advances in understanding disordered gastrointestinal autonomic dysfunction in diabetes. It occurs frequently. The underlying pathogenesis is complex involving defects in multiple interacting cell types of the myenteric plexus as well. These defects may be irreversible or reversible. Gastrointestinal symptoms represent a major and generally underestimated source of morbidity for escalating health care costs in diabetes. Acute changes in glycaemia are both determinants and consequences of altered gastrointestinal motility. 35–90% of diabetic men have moderate‐to‐severe erectile dysfunction (ED). ED shares common risk factors with CVD. Diagnosis is based on medical/sexual history, including validated questionnaires. Physical examination and laboratory testing must be tailored to patient's complaints and risk factors. Treatment is based on PDE5‐inhibitors (PDE5‐I). Other explorations may be useful in patients who do not respond to PDE5‐I. Patients at high cardiovascular risk should be stabilized by their cardiologists before sexual activity is considered or ED treatment is recommended. Estimates on bladder dysfunction prevalence are 43–87% of type 1 and 25% of type 2 diabetic patients, respectively. Common symptoms include dysuria, frequency, urgency, nocturia and incomplete bladder emptying. Diagnosis should use validated questionnaire for lower urinary tract symptoms. The type of bladder dysfunction is readily characterized with complete urodynamic testing. Sudomotor dysfunction is a cause of dry skin and is associated with foot ulcerations. Sudomotor function can be assessed by thermoregulatory sweat testing, quantitative sudomotor axon reflex test, sympathetic skin response, quantitative direct/indirect axon reflex testing and the indicator plaster. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/87058/1/1223_ftp.pd

Excitability and synaptic transmission in the enteric nervous system: Does diet play a role?

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016. Changes in diet are a challenge to the gastrointestinal tract which needs to alter its processing mechanisms to continue to process nutrients and maintain health. In particular, the enteric nervous system (ENS) needs to adapt its motor and secretory programs to deal with changes in nutrient type and load in order to optimise nutrient absorption. The nerve circuits in the gut are complex, and the numbers and types of neurons make recordings of specific cell types difficult, time-consuming, and prone to sampling errors. Nonetheless, traditional research methods like intracellular electrophysiological approaches have provided the basis for our understanding of the ENS circuitry. In particular, animal models of intestinal inflammation have shown us that we can document changes to neuronal excitability and synaptic transmission. Recent studies examining diet-induced changes to ENS programming have opted to use fast imaging techniques to reveal changes in neuron function. Advances in imaging techniques using voltage- or calcium-sensitive dyes to record neuronal activity promise to overcome many limitations inherent to electrophysiological approaches. Imaging techniques allow access to a wide range of ENS phenotypes and to the changes they undergo during dietary challenges. These sorts of studies have shown that dietary variation or obesity can change how the ENS processes information-in effect reprogramming the ENS. In this review, the data gathered from intracellular recordings will be compared with measurements made using imaging techniques in an effort to determine if the lessons learnt from inflammatory changes are relevant to the understanding of diet-induced reprogramming

Colonic Biopsies to Assess the Neuropathology of Parkinson's Disease and Its Relationship with Symptoms

The presence of Lewy bodies and Lewy neurites (LN) has been demonstrated in the enteric nervous system (ENS) of Parkinson's disease (PD) patients. The aims of the present research were to use routine colonoscopy biopsies (1) to analyze, in depth, enteric pathology throughout the colonic submucosal plexus (SMP), and (2) to correlate the pathological burden with neurological and gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms.A total of 10 control and 29 PD patients divided into 3 groups according to disease duration were included. PD and GI symptoms were assessed using the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale part III and the Rome III questionnaire, respectively. Four biopsies were taken from the ascending and descending colon during the course of a total colonoscopy. Immunohistochemical analysis was performed using antibodies against phosphorylated alpha-synuclein, neurofilaments NF 220 kDa (NF) and tyrosine hydroxylase (TH). The density of LN, labeled by anti-phosphorylated alpha-synuclein antibodies, was evaluated using a quantitative rating score. Lewy pathology was apparent in the colonic biopsies from 21 patients and in none of the controls. A decreased number of NF-immunoreactive neurons per ganglion was observed in the SMP of PD patients compared to controls. The amount of LN in the ENS was inversely correlated with neuronal count and positively correlated with levodopa-unresponsive features and constipation.Analysis of the ENS by routine colonoscopy biopsies is a useful tool for pre-mortem neuropathological diagnosis of PD, and also provides insight into the progression of motor and non-motor symptoms